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2021~2022年全球通胀形势分析与展望:短期波动加剧与长期中枢上行

文章摘要

2021年,全球通胀压力上升,但国别分化明显。在疫苗接种和政策刺激的双重支撑下,发达经济体经济加速复苏,通胀水平快速抬头。其中,美国通胀进程领先于其他发达经济体,阿根廷、土耳其等部分新兴经济体通胀飙升、经济恐陷滞胀。疫情和政策带来的供需错配是促使本轮通胀快速抬升以及短期波动加剧的主要原因。主要经济体央行坚称“暂时性通胀”观点,对通胀前景保持“谨慎乐观”,但通胀高企持续时间或超预期。预计随着疫情形势好转、供应链瓶颈缓解,美欧通胀有望在2022~2023年显著回落。但全球经济重建、产业转型升级以及“碳中和”下全球能源结构调整,将加剧相关商品的供求紧张关系,带动中长期通胀中枢相较疫情前上行,其中与半导体和新能源相关的有色金属、清洁能源等商品价格仍有上行空间。

Abstract

In 2021,global inflationary pressures rise obviously,but with divergent movements among countries. With the collective support of vaccination and stimulus policies,the economic recovery of developed countries accelerates amid a rapid rise in inflation rates. In particular,the inflation dynamics in U.S. are ahead of those of other advanced economies. The inflation rates of some emerging economies soar,like Argentina and Turkey,and they are faced with a high risk of stagnation. The mismatch between supply and demand caused by the epidemic and policies is the main reason for the rapid rise in recent inflation pressures. The central banks of major economies insist on the argument of “temporary inflation” and remain “cautiously optimistic” about the inflation outlook,but they also admit that the duration of high inflation may be longer than expected. As with the improving of the epidemic situation and the easing of supply chain bottlenecks,we expect that inflation rates in U.S. and Europe will fall down significantly in 2022 or 2023. However,the reconstruction of global economy,industrial transformation and upgrading,and the adjustment of global energy structure in the context of “carbon neutrality” will intensify the tension between the supply and demand of related commodities,and thus lead to higher average inflation rates in the medium- and long- term compared with the average values pre-COVID-19. Among them,there still are possibilities for a further increase in the prices of commodities related to semiconductors and new energy,such as non-ferrous metals and clean energy.

作者简介
崔晓敏:崔晓敏,经济学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员,主要研究领域为国际贸易。
肖立晟:肖立晟,经济学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员,主要研究领域为宏观经济。
栾稀:栾稀,经济学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为货币政策。