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2021~2022年国际金融形势回顾与展望

文章摘要

2021年,国际金融市场深受疫情反复及诸多不确定性风险的影响呈现持续动荡。在疫苗接种率上升和持续宽松的货币政策支持下,全球股市表现先于经济复苏,大宗商品价格迅猛上涨推升全球通胀,多国房价再创新高。与此同时,全球债务进一步提升,汇率波动和国际资本流动风险加大,全球金融稳定面临潜在危险。由于疫苗分配不均和各国财政政策空间存在差异,全球经济复苏明显分化。以美国为代表的发达国家经济领先复苏,其货币政策也可能率先转向,并成为主导国际金融变化的主要因素。而发展中国家正面临疫情反复、经济失速和外部融资条件有可能缩紧的三重压力。展望未来,疫情的影响仍将持续至少数年时间,全球经济复苏的基本面仍较脆弱,国际金融形势将面临更多的不确定性。

Abstract

In 2021,international financial market continuously experienced turbulence in the context of rising risks of uncertainties caused by resurgence of Delta variant. Supported by broad vaccine rollout and accommodative monetary policy,global equity market rebound faster than the real economy. The rise of commodities pushed up inflation globally. Housing prices reached record high in many countries. At the same time,global financial stability was threatened by massive debt accumulation,volatility of exchange rates and increasing risk of capital flows. Due to inequitable vaccine allocation and difference in fiscal space across countries,the world economy recovered at uneven paces where the advanced economies took the lead. Therefore,the expectation of policy adjustment and monetary tapering in the US has become the major factor that underscored the development of international financial market. Many emerging and developing economies,however,is facing triple impacts from the resurging COVID-19 affection,slow economy recovery and possible tightening of external financing conditions. Going forward,the world economy will continue suffering the negative impact of the prolong COVID-19 crisis. The situations of international financial market will be highly uncertain and volatile.

作者简介
高海红:高海红,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,主要研究领域:国际金融。
杨子荣:杨子荣,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员,主要研究领域:国际金融。