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2021~2022年西亚非洲经济:不平衡复苏

文章摘要

2021年,疫情在西亚非洲经济发展水平较高国家首先得到控制,疫苗接种和大规模刺激政策的实施推动经济逐步复苏,而经济欠发达地区则存在疫苗获取困难、物价高涨、失业率居高不下等问题。经济不平衡复苏成为2021年该地区经济的重要特征。西亚北非地区的石油进口国面临侨汇下降、石油价格上升等多方面挑战。撒哈拉以南非洲地区的多数国家由于疫苗供应、运输条件较差,疫苗接种进度缓慢,拖延整体经济复苏。预计2021年西亚北非地区经济将反弹4.0%,撒哈拉以南非洲地区经济将反弹3.4%。到2022年,预计西亚北非地区经济增长率为3.7%,撒哈拉以南非洲地区经济增长将达到4.0%。西亚非洲不平衡的经济复苏现状预示着该地区未来需要更多的国际发展合作,以帮助深受疫情拖累的国家渡过难关。

Abstract

In 2021,the epidemic is promptly brought under control in countries with higher levels of economic development in West Asia and Africa since vaccination and the implementation of large-scale stimulus policies drive a gradual economic recovery. Less economically developed countries suffer from difficulties in vaccine access,high inflation,and high unemployment rates. The uneven economic recovery becomes an important feature of the region’s economy in 2021. Oil-importing countries in the West Asia North Africa region face multiple challenges such as declining remittances and rising oil prices. Most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have vaccine supply and distribution difficulties,and slow vaccination progress will delay rapid overall economic recovery. The economy of West Asia North Africa is expected to rebound by 4.0% in 2021 and 3.4% in Sub-Saharan Africa. By 2022,economic growth is expected to be 3.7% in West Asia North Africa and 4.0% in Sub-Saharan Africa. The current state of uneven economic recovery in West Asia and Africa requires more international development cooperation to help the region’s seriously epidemic-stricken countries.

作者简介
孙靓莹:孙靓莹,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为国际发展、联合国可持续发展议程和债务可持续性。