疫情引发的社交隔离措施和国际油气价格的大幅下跌，导致俄罗斯经济增速2020年下降3%，但其消费和出口显示出应对疫情冲击的韧性。俄罗斯未来经济复苏喜忧参半。国际能源价格在未来较长时间可能维持高位，加之国内需求的快速反弹，将推动俄罗斯经济复苏，而疫苗接种率低、通货膨胀率大幅上升引发货币政策紧缩、保守型财政政策和美国经济制裁将加大经济下行风险。预计俄罗斯经济增速2021年将达4.5%左右，2022年将回落至3%左右。
The social distancing measures triggered by the epidemic of the coronavirus and the sharp decline in international oil and gas prices have caused the Russian economy to drop by 3% in 2020，but its domestic consumption and exports have shown some resilience in response to the shock of the epidemic. Russia’s future economic recovery is mixed. High international energy prices and a rapid rebound in domestic demand will promote Russian economic recovery，while low vaccination rates，monetary policy tightening triggered by high inflation rate，conservative fiscal policies，and US economic sanctions will increase economic downside risks. It is estimated that Russia’s economic growth rate will be around 4.5% in 2021 and will decline to about 3% in 2022.
