新冠肺炎疫情给全球经济造成了重大冲击。2020年，日本实际经济增长率为-4.6%。经过一年多的修正，日本经济仍没有恢复到疫情前的绝对水平。2021年上半年，日本实际GDP仅相当于2019年上半年实际GDP的96.7%。私人部门的消费和投资水平依然不及2019年同期；公共部门的消费和投资则强于疫情前，起到了稳定器作用；对外贸易尤其是出口恢复相对较快。由于疫情不断反复，以及迎接东京奥运会的缘故，日本政府在2020年至2021年上半年多次发布“紧急事态宣言”，不过效果却较为一般。治标不治本的抗疫措施对日本经济尤其是非制造业的影响较大。疫情发展形势、日本新政府的经济政策和抗疫政策，以及相关政策部门如何应对可能发生的美国货币金融政策变化，是对日本经济走势影响较大的几个因素。
The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 has had a major impact on the global economy as well as on the Japanese economy. Japan’s real economic growth rate is -4.6% in 2020. After more than a year of recovery，Japan’s economy has not returned to its pre-epidemic levels. In the first half of 2021，Japan’s real GDP was only 96.7% of that of the first half of 2019. Private sector consumption and investment levels remain below the levels in the same period in 2019；public sector consumption and investment are stronger than that of before the epidemic，acting as stabilizers；Japan’s imports and exports，especially exports，recovered relatively quickly. The Japanese government has repeatedly announced the “declaration of a state of emergency” in 2020 and the first half of 2021. Anti-epidemic measures，which do not cure the disease，have a great impact on the Japanese economy，especially the non-manufacturing industry. We believe that the development of the epidemic，the new Japanese government’s economic policy and anti-epidemic policy，and how the policy departments to deal with possible changes in U.S. monetary and financial policy，are major influence factors on japan’s economy.
