历经新冠肺炎疫情数轮袭扰之后，欧洲经济复苏自2021年春季开始显著提速，服务业和制造业双双以疫情暴发以来最快速度发展，失业率震荡下行，经济景气指数和消费者信心大涨。疫苗接种率提高和疫情限制解除是欧洲此次复苏步伐加快的关键，始终保持宽松的货币政策以及“下一代欧盟”复兴计划的落地也提供了不小的助力。不过，持续走高的通胀压力促使欧央行决定放缓购债节奏，货币供给增速或将有所下降。新冠肺炎疫情形势的变化、供应链瓶颈问题、通胀走势以及外部经济体复苏进度将决定着欧洲经济下一阶段的复苏表现。若全球疫情形势不出现明显恶化，预计欧盟和欧元区经济最早在2022年初能够恢复至疫情前水平。
After experiencing several rounds of COVID-19 outbreaks，the European economy has picked up its pace towards recovery since the spring of 2021. Activities in both manufacture and service industry were expanding at an exceptional speed and the regional unemployment rate slightly dropped. The economic sentiment indicator rose to its highest level since 2018，while the consumer confidence index posted two consecutive all-time-highs in June and July. What put the EU economies back in motion are the rollout of vaccination and the continued easing of virus containment measures. ECB’s stand on monetary policy and the implement of Next Generation EU fueled the recovery as well. Yet，the mounting pressure of inflation has forced ECB to cut back on pandemic emergency purchase program，and may slow down the expansion of monetary supply. The outlook of the European economy will be impacted by the virus variants，disruptions in supply chains and the rising inflation. The pace of recovery in other advanced economies will also generate mixed implications for EU. Under the assumption of no renewed outbreaks of COVID-19，the EU is expected to see its economic output return to the pre-pandemic level by the beginning of 2022 at the earliest.
