从2020年第三季度开始,新冠肺炎疫情冲击后的经济反弹如期而至,企业经营绩效和金融市场在各项救助政策支持下呈现出较强的韧性,但是包括失业率等在内的不少宏观经济指标还没有恢复到疫情前水平,导致各种刺激政策退出速度比较迟缓。在经过10多年持续的扩张货币政策以后,市场在关注货币政策的同时也越来越关注财政政策的变化。尽管由翘尾效应和供应链瓶颈造成物价上涨,通货膨胀和货币政策的转换还是成为市场焦点。财政赤字和债务负担也会拖累经济增长。预计2021年美国经济增长将处在5.2%~5.9%的反弹区间,但是在2022年可能下降到略高于正常水平的增长率。
The real GDP growth rebounded as expected in the third quarter of 2020 after the COVID-19 pandemic weigh heavily on economic activity and the ongoing vaccination campaigns offer hope for a return to more normal conditions. Supported by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies,performance of enterprises and financial market presents resilience. However,macroeconomic indicators including unemployment rate did not resume to the pre-pandemic level,and resulted in a low exit of unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus. Within a decade-long continuously monetary expansion,not only the monetary policy but also fiscal balance became market focus. Even though the likely transitory result of base-effect and the economic-reopening give a temporary upward pressure come from prices for goods experiencing supply chain bottlenecks,consumer price inflation and the shift of FED policy became a hot topic. The heaven burden of public debt may draw back growth momentum. It is estimated that the US economic growth will be in the range between 5.9%-5.2% in 2021,and slow down gradually to a little higher level of its potential in 2022.