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全球疫情下东南亚经济形势的分析与预测(2020)

文章摘要

随着新冠肺炎疫情席卷全球,东南亚经济增速急转直下,各国官方和国际经济组织均大幅下调2020年经济增长的预期。由于实施防控疫情的举措,东南亚各国的经济增长动力减弱,国内消费和投资下滑,生产与出口骤降,服务业遭受重创,失业和民生问题凸显。为应对全球疫情蔓延对经济的影响,东南亚国家将抗击疫情列为国家议程的头等大事,全力以赴抗疫情、稳经济、稳社会和稳民生。各国纷纷推出经济援助配套计划,调整宏观经济政策工具,加大财政支出,降低基准利率,稳定汇率和金融市场,援助中小企业和弱势群体,加强区域合作共同应对疫情的影响。未来东南亚经济增长仍存在较大不确定性,将取决于全球疫情的消退尤其是重要贸易伙伴国的经济复苏。

Abstract

With the global spread of the new world epidemic,the economic growth in Southeast Asia has taken a sharp turn down. Officials and international economic organizations of various countries have significantly lowered the economic growth expectations in 2020. As a result of the measures taken by various countries to prevent and control the epidemic,Southeast Asia’s economic growth momentum has weakened,domestic consumption and investment have declined,production and exports have plummeted,the service sector has been hit hard,and unemployment and livelihood problems have become more prominent. To cope with the economic impact of the spread of the global epidemic,Southeast Asian countries have placed the fight against the epidemic at the top of their national agenda and spared no effort to fight the epidemic and stabilize the economy,society and people’s livelihood. Countries have rolled out supporting economic assistance programs,adjusted macroeconomic policy tools,increased fiscal spending,lowered benchmark interest rates,stabilized exchange rates and financial markets,provided assistance to small and medium-sized enterprises and vulnerable groups,and strengthened regional cooperation to jointly cope with the impact of the epidemic. In the post-epidemic era,Southeast Asia’s economic growth still faces great uncertainties,which will depend on the recovery of the global epidemic,especially the economic recovery of important trading partners.

作者简介
王岩:王岩,经济学博士,厦门大学南洋研究院教授、博士生导师。