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新冠疫情剧烈冲击下的日本——2020~2021年日本形势回顾与展望

文章摘要

2020年,新冠疫情肆虐全球,对日本政治、经济、社会及外交造成全面剧烈冲击,日本的抗疫模式遭遇重挫,东京奥运会被迫延期。自民党执政高开低走,首相安倍晋三在原本预计的“高光之年”挂冠而去,菅义伟内阁在防疫与提振经济之间左支右绌,陷入困境。日本经济急剧衰退,内需外贸双双下挫,全年实际GDP负增长4.8%。疫情对安倍“俯瞰地球仪外交”造成冲击,日本“国际战略活跃度”指数下滑,与近周边国家关系普遍僵冷。但日本积极开展“疫情外交”,通过线上线下相结合等灵活方式,推动双多边合作取得进展,对欧洲、东南亚外交取得新进展。同时,日本继续推进与“中等强国”合作,着力打造新“战略支点”,深化日欧关系,借引“欧洲因素”入亚太、印太,构建有利于日本的地区战略平衡。随着美国民主党候选人拜登赢得总统选举,日美同盟开始重回强化轨道。2020年,中日关系出现波动,遭遇新问题、新挑战。随着疫情在日本迅速蔓延以及中日钓鱼岛争端再度凸显,执政的自民党的涉华消极言论和动作增多,菅内阁试图借“疫情牌”在台湾以及香港等问题上触碰中国底线。展望2021年,受新冠疫情走势、日本国内政治及中日美三边互动等影响,中日关系前景呈现较大的不确定性。

Abstract

In 2020,the outbreak and spread of COVID-19 have strong impact on Japan’s domestic politics,economy,society and diplomacy,with Japan’s mode of epidemic prevention coming with frustration and the Tokyo Olympic Games forced to be postponed. The performance of LDP administration had a strong start but gradually showed weakness. The former prime minister Shinzo Abe had to resign and his successor Suga Yoshihide,faced with difficulties,had to balance his policy between epidemic prevention and economic recovery. In 2020,Japan’s economy has fallen into recession with the -4.8% annual growth rate of GDP. The epidemic has also hit Abe’s “diplomacy overlooking the globe”,with Japan’s strategic activeness declining and relations with neighbouring countries stuck in dilemma. However,Japan has actively carried out “epidemic diplomacy”,promoted progress in bilateral and multilateral cooperation and made new progress in the diplomacy towards Europe and Southeast Asia. Japan also continues to promote cooperation with “middle powers”,focus on efforts to build new “strategic pivots” by deepening Japan-EU relations and introducing the “European factor” into the Asia-Pacific and India-Pacific regions to build a regional strategic balance that is favorable to Japan. With U.S. Democratic candidate Joe Biden won the presidential election,the Japan-U.S. alliance come to be restrengthened. In 2020,Sino-Japanese relations have fluctuated and encountered new problems and challenges. With the spread of COVID-19 in Japan,U.S. passing off the responsibility to China on the origin of COVID-19 and the rising contradiction between China and Japan on East China Sea and Diaoyu Island issues,there has been growing negative statement and action from the side of Japanese government and LDP,and the Suga administration attempts to make use of the “epidemic card” to touch the bottom line of China in Taiwan and Xinjiang issues. Looking into the year 2021,under the impact of variables such as COVID-19,Japan’s domestic politics and China-U.S.-Japan interaction,Sino-Japanese relations will be faced with more uncertainty.

作者简介
杨伯江:杨伯江,法学博士,中国社会科学院日本研究所所长,中华日本学会常务副会长(法人代表),主要研究方向为大国关系、亚太地区安全、日本问题。
朱清秀:
陈祥:陈祥,文学博士,中国社会科学院日本研究所副研究员,主要研究方向为日本问题、环境史、近代日本侵华史。
楊伯江:
陳祥: