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加勒比地区:大选年过渡平稳,双账户收支恶化(2020~2021)

文章摘要

2020年是加勒比地区的超级大选年,地区7国举行大选,除圭亚那外,基本实现政权的平稳过渡,政治环境整体稳定。受新冠肺炎疫情冲击,地区经济严重衰退,高于拉丁美洲和加勒比地区平均水平,经常账户收支恶化,而逆周期调节政策推高公共债务,财政收支不平衡凸显,但加勒比地区的财政支持力度仍显不足。经济危机的影响进一步蔓延至社会领域,就业和收入分配的恶化导致地区局部出现紧张局势,新冠疫苗推广面临的困境进一步拖累经济和社会复苏。外交领域表现出局部冲突延续、双边合作更受青睐的态势。

Abstract

The year of 2020 was a super election year in the Caribbean. Seven countries in this region completed general elections. Except for Guyana,all other countries held general election in 2020 and achieved smooth transitions of powers. Overall,the political environment in the Caribbean was stable. Due to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis,the region’s economy was in a severe recession,higher than the average level of Latin America and the Caribbean. Current account balances deteriorated,while counter cyclical adjustment policies pushed up public debt. The imbalance between fiscal balance and revenue was highlighted. However,the fiscal support announced were still insufficient. The impact of economic crisis has further spread to the social realm. The deterioration of employment and income distribution has led to social tensions. The difficulties faced by the roll out of the COVID-19 vaccine further dragged down the economic and social recovery. In terms of international relations,partial conflicts continue and bilateral cooperation tends to be more favored.

作者简介
郭凌威:郭凌威,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所助理研究员,主要研究方向为拉美经济、国际直接投资。