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2020~2021年拉美经济形势:百年疫情,百年衰退

文章摘要

2020年突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情冲击加大了本已处于经济下行周期的拉美国家所面临的风险。拉美地区遭遇120年来最严重的经济衰退,虽然通胀率因需求不足而下降,但是失业率、贫困率和赤贫率攀升,社会紧张局势加剧。同时社会不平等也加大了疫情冲击的程度。公共债务高企、货币波动加剧以及社会风险的积累增加了经济的不确定性。尽管拉美国家实施了应对疫情措施,但是财政政策和货币政策的操作空间受到约束。展望“后疫情”时代,对于拉美国家而言,短期来看,防风险、稳增长是首要任务;中期来看,通过结构性改革和区域经济一体化,减少经济脆弱性;长期来看,实施新发展模式,促进经济与社会协调发展。

Abstract

The sudden outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 exacerbated the risks faced by Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries,which have been already in the economic downturn. LAC countries have experienced the worst economic recession in 120 years. Although the inflation rate has declined due to insufficient domestic demand,the unemployment rate,poverty rate and extreme poverty rate have risen significantly,and social tensions have increased. At the same time,social inequality also exacerbated the impact of the pandemic. High public debt,increased currency volatility and the accumulation of social risks add to economic uncertainty. Although LAC countries have implemented measures to combat the pandemic,the room for manoeuvre of fiscal and monetary policies have been constrained. Looking ahead to the post-COVID-19 era,for LAC countries,risk prevention and stable growth are the top priorities in the short-term;In the medium term,structural reforms and regional economic integration should be adopted to reduce economic vulnerability;In the long term,new development models should be implemented to promote coordinated economic and social development.

作者简介
张勇:张勇,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所经济研究室副主任、研究员,主要研究领域为拉美经济、发展模式转型、中拉经贸关系。