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2020~2021年拉丁美洲和加勒比地区形势

文章摘要

新冠肺炎疫情对拉美和加勒比地区造成猛烈冲击。2020年,该地区陷入120年来最严重的经济衰退,所有国家的失业、贫困和不平等状况都恶化了。在疫情下,民众短期内把注意力转向防疫,地区各国的政治、社会矛盾有所缓和。在疫情发生之后,地区各国对疫情的管控主要是在本国范围内实施,未能形成地区范围的合作抗疫。许多拉美国家采取了较长时间的封禁政策,但收效不佳,原因包括不利的劳动力市场结构、一些居民的生活环境恶劣、落后的金融和互联网基础设施、脆弱的医疗系统以及弱体制能力。中拉贸易在2020年经受住新冠肺炎疫情的考验,保持平稳运行,成为带动中拉关系持续向前的重要动力。中拉双方开展全方位抗疫合作,取得三大收获:第一,双边关系继续保持友好合作的基调;第二,从战略上坚定拉美和加勒比国家发展对华关系的决心与信心;第三,企业作为中拉关系重要行为体的作用进一步凸显。2021年,疫情的走势仍是影响拉美和加勒比地区经济、社会形势的关键因素。该地区有望迎来经济复苏,但复苏进程将是脆弱而缓慢的。

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) hard in 2020 and plunged the region into the largest economic recession in 120 years. All regional countries witnessed the worsening unemployment,poverty and inequality. The anti-COVID-19 campaign contributed to moderating political and contradictions that were once sharpened in 2019. It is noticeable that the control of the pandemic was mainly carried out by regional countries within their own countries instead of joint efforts of the whole region after the outbreak of the pandemic. Lockdown measures failed to achieve the expected results due to a variety of disadvantages such as the unfavorable structure of the labor market,poor living conditions for some residents,insufficient infrastructure of finance and the Internet,fragile health systems,and weak institutional capacities. Despite widespread pandemic impacts in 2020,the trade between China and LAC maintained stable,becoming an important driving force for bilateral relationship. China and Latin America have achieved three major achievements through all-round cooperation on COVID-19. First,bilateral relations continue to maintain the tone of friendly cooperation;Second,LAC strengthened confidence in developing relations with China strategically;Third,the role of enterprises as important actors in China-Latin America relations has become more prominent. In 2021,the trend of the pandemic will remain a key factor in affecting the economic and social situation in the region. An economic recovery is expected to come,but it will be fragile and slow.

作者简介
王鹏:王鹏,法学博士,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所副研究员、发展与战略研究室主任,中美洲和加勒比中心秘书长,主要从事拉美政治研究。