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德国政党格局发展新动向

文章摘要

新冠肺炎疫情在整个2020年几乎完全主导着德国政党政治。尽管图林根州州议会选举的余波明显不同寻常,但也只是在前两个月,此后,德国政治一如既往地关注政党政治。在这次选举无果后,自民党人托马斯·凯梅里奇在右翼民粹主义德国另类选择党的支持下当选州长。这引发了一场大丑闻,导致凯梅里奇和基民盟主席克兰普-卡伦鲍尔双双辞职。不久,新冠肺炎疫情在德国肆虐,在2020年剩下的几个月里,主要讨论如何应对疫情这一挑战。一般而言,政府可以在危机中受益并获得公众支持,这完全对领导大联合政府的联盟党有利,而社民党的民调支持率仍停留在15%的水平。目前来看,2021年联邦议院选举之后的下一届德国政府,很有可能组成基民盟/基社盟与绿党之间的黑绿联盟。

Abstract

German party politics was throughout 2020 almost entirely dominated by the Corona pandemic. Only during the first two months,politicians focused on party politics as usual,even though the fallout of the parliamentary election in the Land Thuringia was clearly unusual. After an inconclusive election result,the Free Democratic Party(FDP)politician Thomas Kemmerich was elected Prime Minister with the votes of the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany(AfD). This led to a massive scandal,resulting not only in Kemmerich’s speedy resignation but also in the withdrawal of CDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. Soon after,the pandemic hit Germany,and the rest of the year was mainly dominated by debates about how to deal with this challenge. As often in crises,the government could benefit handsomely and gained public support,which,however,exclusively benefitted the leading coalition parties CDU and CSU,while the SPD in polls remained stuck at around 15 per cent. On the eve of the 2021 Bundestag election it looks very likely that the next German government will be led by a Christian Democrat,most probably jointly with a Green Vice-Chancellor.

作者简介
〔德〕露西·金斯基:〔德〕露西·金斯基(Lucy Kinski),政治学博士,德国杜塞尔多夫海因里希·海内大学德国与国际政党法与政治研究所研究人员,主要研究领域为比较政治、政党研究。
〔德〕托马斯·波贡特克:〔德〕托马斯·波贡特克(Thomas Poguntke),政治学博士,德国杜塞尔多夫海因里希·海内大学比较政治学教授,德国与国际政党法与政治研究所所长,主要研究领域为比较政治、政党研究。
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