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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

碳中和、市场化背景下的中国天然气市场发展前景

文章摘要

2035年以前,中国天然气发展面临碳中和、市场化的双重利好,预计将继续支撑天然气市场的快速发展,从而实现能源清洁化的目标。在2030年碳峰值目标下,天然气与非化石能源将形成减排发展齐头并进的局面。在2060年碳中和目标下,天然气消费量预计趋于平稳发展,天然气预计将和非化石能源形成长期多能互补的关系。清燃智库预测,2025年天然气将占一次能源总量的11。5%,2030年将占一次能源总量的14%,2035年将占一次能源总量的15%。天然气将在未来较长一段时间内的多个领域持续推动煤改气、油改气工程,这也将继续满足中国天然气进口、生产和基础设施建设的需要。

Abstract

Due to China’s natural gas development will face the dual benefits of carbon neutrality and marketization,it is expected that China’s natural gas market will maintain rapid development before 2035,so as to achieve the goal of clean energy development. To peak carbon emissions by 2030,natural gas and non-fossil energy markets will advance side by side and make joint efforts to reduce carbon emissions. With the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060,China’s natural gas consumption is expected to remain stable,but natural gas and non-fossil energy may form a multi-energy complementary relationship for a long time. CEthinktank estimated that the share of natural gas in the primary energy mix will reach 11.5% by 2025,14% by 2030,and 15% by 2035. Chinese government will continue to promote the “coal-to-gas” and “oil-to-gas” switching programs in many fields for a long time in the future. This will continue to provide favorable conditions for China’s natural gas imports,production and infrastructure construction.

作者简介
黄庆:黄庆,上海清燃商务咨询有限公司董事长兼首席信息官,具有15年以上燃气市场信息、数据和咨询经验。
丁大鹏:丁大鹏,任职于中国石油化工股份有限公司天然气分公司。