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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

2020年世界能源发展现状及未来趋势

文章摘要

本文首先对2020年世界石油、天然气、煤炭、可再生能源和电力的整体供需状况进行回顾,分析石油储量下降、天然气产量下降、煤炭消费量波动以及用电量下滑的影响因素,突出新冠肺炎疫情大流行导致的全球经济衰退,石油需求下跌,原油供给震荡,以及沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯价格战导致的全球石油市场供需失衡。在此基础上,预测2021年世界石油需求增长推高油价,非化石能源消费提高;全球天然气供需趋稳增长,亚洲需求为增长的主要动力;煤炭需求缓慢恢复且有小幅反弹;可再生能源开发利用将有更大的份额,系统性降碳、脱碳是实现“双碳”目标的主线。最后,对中国能源发展现状进行分析,认为煤炭消费结构将持续优化,供给体系质量显著提升;电力市场供需稳定,发电装机容量增长。未来在碳达峰、碳中和的约束下,石油化工和煤化工产业将面临挑战,太阳能发电设备回收处理工作将迎来窗口期,西部能源产业发展将增加碳交易的可能性与机会。

Abstract

This paper first reviews the overall development of world oil,natural gas,coal,renewable energy and electricity in 2020,analyzes the factors affecting the decline of oil reserves,the decline of natural gas production,the fluctuation of coal consumption,the decline of electricity consumption,and highlights the global economic recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is imbalance between supply and demand in the global oil market caused by the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. On this basis,it is predicted that the world oil demand will increase,push up oil prices and increase non fossil energy consumption in 2021. Global natural gas supply and demand is growing steadily,with Asian demand as the main driving force. Coal demand recovered slowly and rebounded slightly. The development and utilization of renewable energy will occupy a larger share. Systematic carbon reduction and decarbonization are the main lines to achieve the carbon goal. Finally,based on the analysis of the current situation of China’s energy development,it is considered that the coal consumption structure will be continuously optimized and the quality of the supply system will be significantly improved. The supply and demand of power market is stable,and the installed capacity of power generation is increasing. In the future,China’s energy industry will face challenges under the constraints of carbon peak and carbon neutralization. The recovery and treatment of solar power generation equipment will usher in a window period. The development of Western energy industry will improve the possibility and opportunity of carbon trading.

作者简介
陈星星:陈星星,中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所副编审。
黄晓勇:黄晓勇,教授,中国社会科学院大学(研究生院)国际能源安全研究中心主任。
王炜:王炜,中国社会科学院大学科研处处长,中国社会科学院大学(研究生院)国际能源安全研究中心秘书长。