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2020年的美国经济:经济衰退,复苏缓慢

文章摘要

2020年美国宏观经济的总体形势有两个主要特征:一是受疫情冲击,经济大衰退;二是动能不足,复苏缓慢。具体来看,宏观经济形势有以下表现:私人消费支出下降,其中服务类消费低迷;投资疲软,但仍成为贡献第四季度GDP的主力军;贸易萎缩,逆差创2008年金融危机以来的新高;政府支出增加,对GDP的要素贡献率先增后减;物价水平先降后升,暂无大规模通胀风险;劳动力市场持续疲软,对低收入者的就业率影响较大;金融市场波动较大,国债收益率曲线下降;房地产与制造业成为疫情下美国经济复苏的亮点。2020年美国政府推行经济政策的核心,主要是在疫情防控和重启经济中寻求平衡。展望2021年,在美国现有的政策框架下,如果疫情能够得到有效的控制,美国经济将呈现复苏态势。

Abstract

The U.S. economy in 2020 was characterized by great recession affected by the epidemic and slow recovery with lessen momentum. Specifically,the macro economy has the following performances:the private consumption expenditures fall with services spending sluggish;investment is weak,but it is still the main force contributing to GDP in the fourth quarter;Trade shrank and the deficit reached a new high since the 2008 financial crisis;government expenditure increases while the contribution to GDP increases first and then decreases;The price level first falls and then rises,and there is no risk of large-scale inflation for the time being;The labor market continues to be weak,which has a great impact on the employment rate of low-income population;The financial market fluctuates greatly,and the yield curve of national debt declines;Real estate and manufacturing industry are the bright spot of U.S. economy recovery under the epidemic. In 2020,the core of U.S. economic policy is seeking the balance between epidemic prevention and economy restart. Looking forward to 2021,under the existing policy framework of the United States,if the epidemic can be effectively controlled,the U.S. economy will show a recovery trend.

作者简介
孙天昊:孙天昊,中国社会科学院美国研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为中美经贸关系、美国贸易政策。