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失序与动荡:迷失在疫情中的美国大选

文章摘要

2020年,新冠肺炎疫情席卷全球。特朗普政府采取消极抗疫措施,导致疫情在美国迅速扩散,并对其政治、经济、社会和安全等多个层面造成较大负面影响。疫情蔓延叠加社会分裂态势,导致美国内政失序,外交僵化;社会身份政治“堡垒化”,阶层矛盾日趋凸显;对外攻势升级,并呈现出战略短视。2020年的美国大选与美国固有的社会矛盾密切相关,同时还受到新冠肺炎疫情等突发因素的影响。民众政治参与度空前高涨,两党总统候选人势均力敌,最终以民主党阵营胜选告终。纵观选举进程,疫情因素成为左右选情的关键变量。未来,拜登面对的国内外挑战可能是冷战以来最为严峻的,控制疫情、恢复经济与稳定同盟将成为其重点关注的领域。尽管拜登政府难以从根本上扭转美国的历史积弊,消除特朗普政府的政策遗留的消极影响,但在某些具体政策上仍可能有所突破,延缓更严重危机的到来。

Abstract

In face of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020,The Trump administration have adopted passive anti-epidemic measures,which led to the rapid spread of the virus in the United States. This also had a great negative impact on its political,economic,social,and security environment. The spread of the epidemic,coupled with the social split,has led to the disorder of the internal affairs and the rigidity of the diplomacy of the American government;On one hand,its internal identity politics is turning out to be a “fortress”,and the class contradictions are becoming increasingly prominent. On the other hand,its external offensive posture is escalating and showing strategic shortsightedness. The 2020 U.S. general election is not only closely related to the inherent social contradictions in the U.S.,but also deeply affected by the unexpected factors,such as the coronavirus epidemic. Voters participate enthusiastically,candidates of the two parties are evenly matched,and finally the democratic camp won the election. Throughout the process,the epidemic has become a key variable. In the future,Joe Biden will face the most severe challenges domestically and internationally since the Cold War. Controlling the epidemic,restoring the economy as well as stabilizing its alliance will become his political priority. Although it is difficult for Biden administration to fundamentally reverse the historical abuses of the United States and eliminate the negative effects left over by the Trump administration’s policies,it is still possible to make a breakthrough in some specific policies to delay the arrival of a more serious crisis.

作者简介
张一飞:张一飞,中国社会科学院美国研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为国际安全与大国战略。
杨楠:杨楠,中国社会科学院美国研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为美国国土安全问题与国家安全问题。