本文介绍了电气化率的测算方法，对福建省全社会、分领域的电气化率发展历程和现状情况进行分析，基于Johansen协整检验及ECM模型对2030年和2060年电气化率进行展望。初步测算，2019年福建省电气化率为28。8%，2030年居全国第5位。分领域来看，批发零售住宿餐饮业、居民生活、工业领域电气化率较高，交通运输仓储邮政业电气化率最低。分地区来看，宁德、漳州、厦门、福州电气化率较高。从发展趋势来看，2030年福建省电气化率在基准场景和电气化加速场景下分别达40%和42%，2060年分别达61%和74%。总体来看，福建省电气化率提升仍有较大空间，需要从生产生活多方面入手推动全省电气化水平再上新台阶。
This report introduces the calculation method of electrification rate，analyzes the development and current situation of electrification rate by different fields in Fujian from the view of the whole society，and forecasts the electrification rate in 2030 and 2060 based on Johansen co-integration test and ECM model. With the preliminary calculation，the electrification rate of Fujian was 28.8% in 2019，the electrification rate of Fujian will reach 40% and 42% in 2030 in the scenario of baseline and electrification acceleration respectively，and 61% and 74% in 2060 respectively. In general，there is still large space for the improvement of the electrification rate in Fujian. It is necessary to proceed with multiple aspects of production and ways of living to promote a new level of provincial electrification.
