为研判全省中长期碳排放发展态势，超前部署碳达峰后全省中长期减排措施，本文利用STIRPAT模型以及场景分析法，构建基准、加速转型和深度优化三个场景，进一步将全省碳排放轨迹预测延长至2070年。测算表明：从中长期看，福建省碳排放将经历快速下降—降幅趋缓—进入平台三个阶段。在基准、加速转型和深度优化场景下，福建省碳排放预计分别在2060年、2058年和2054年左右进入平台期，排放水平在5000万吨/年左右。进一步考虑中长期除碳能力的发展态势，当仅考虑林木碳汇和CCUS技术除碳时，预计在基准、加速转型和深度优化场景下，福建省分别在2063年、2057年和2054年实现碳中和。若进一步考虑海洋碳汇和土壤碳汇，三个场景下福建省实现碳中和的时间将分别提前至2057年、2053年和2049年。可见，下阶段福建省需采取更多除碳增汇措施，同时充分挖掘海洋等领域碳汇资源，确保如期实现碳中和目标。
This report uses the STIRPAT model，and scenario analysis to forecast the trends of carbon emissions of Fujian in the middle and long termand deploy the emission reduction measures after reaching the carbon peak in advance. By constructing the scenarios of baseline，accelerating transformation，and deep optimization，the forecast of carbon footprint was extended to 2070. The result shows that，in the middle and long term，carbon emissions of Fujian will experience three stages，namely rapid decline，slow decline and gradually reaching the plateau phases. In the scenarios of baseline，accelerated transformation and deep optimization，the carbon emissions in Fujian are expected to reach the plateau stage around 2060，2058 and 2054 respectively，with an emission of about 50 million tons per year. Further analyzing the development trend of carbon removal capacity in the middle and long term，it is estimated that Fujian will achieve carbon neutrality in 2063，2057 and 2054 respectively in the three scenarios considering only forestry carbon sinks and CCUS carbon removal technology. Taking the ocean carbon sinks and soil carbon sinks into consideration，the carbon neutrality time in the three scenarios will be advanced to 2057，2053 and 2049，respectively. Hence，Fujian needs to take more measures to reduce carbon emissions and increase carbon sinks，and fully tap the carbon sink resources in the next stage to ensure the goal of carbon neutrality can be achieved as scheduled.
| Keywords： | Carbon NeutralityCarbon SinksCCUS |
