新冠肺炎疫情蔓延、第二次纳卡战争、格鲁吉亚议会选举纷争是2020年南高加索(简称南高)地区局势重要变化的缩影,导致南高地区形势再趋紧张,进入一个新的不稳定时期。新冠肺炎疫情对南高地区国家的公共卫生安全体系构成巨大压力,使地区经济陷入新一轮低迷不振,社会稳定风险明显上升。阿塞拜疆在土耳其全力支持下赢得第二次纳卡战争,在纳卡问题上占据主动有利地位。格鲁吉亚议会选举结果引发争议,朝野互不相让,局势前景不明。未来南高地区国家政局稳定仍存在变数,地区热点隐患尚在,大国争夺日趋白热化,南高地区短期内很难走出困境。
COVID-19,the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and the dispute over Georgia’s parliamentary elections are the microcosm of the important changes in the situation in the South Caucasus in 2020,which led to a tense situation in the South Caucasus and entered a new unstable period. COVID-19 has put great pressure on the public health and safety system of the South High countries,causing the regional economy to fall into a new downturn,and the risk of social stability has increased significantly. With Turkey’s full support,Azerbaijan won the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and took the initiative in the Naka issue. The result of the parliamentary election in Georgia has caused controversy,there is no compromise between government and opposition,and the prospect of the situation is unclear. In the future,there are still variables in the political stability of the country,hidden dangers of regional hot spots still exist,and the competition among big powers is getting more and fiercer. It is difficult for the region to get out of the predicament in the short term.