2020年，意大利经济又一次遭遇外部冲击，与以往不同的是，此次冲击来自新冠肺炎疫情全球大流行。在欧洲，意大利是最早受到疫情影响的国家，也是经济上受冲击最为严重的国家之一。2020年意大利国内生产总值（GDP）萎缩接近9%，危机的影响很可能持续数年。不过，欧盟与成员国应对此次危机的举措明显优于此前应对国际金融危机和主权债务危机。对于意大利而言，资金规模巨大的“下一代欧盟”计划不仅有助于经济复苏，也为推进结构性改革和提高经济潜在增长率创造了机遇。得益于名义GDP向好、举债成本接近于零以及欧央行持续购债等一系列积极因素，意大利的公债占GDP的比重在未来几年应是可控的。然而，未来利率终将正常化。如果意大利政府不严肃面对本国的结构性弱点，不能持续压低公债比例，经济问题将会变得更加严重。
Another external shock hit the Italian economy in 2020，this time of a different nature：the global pandemic. Italy was the first European country to be affected and one of those suffering the most in economic terms. GDP contraction in 2020 was close to 9%，and the consequences of the crisis will likely last for several years. Yet，the European and domestic policy response to the crisis has been much better this time than in previous episodes. The massive Next Generation EU package not only helps the recovery but also offers a chance for structural reforms and the enhancement of Italy’s potential growth. The combination of nominal GDP dynamics，the cost of borrowing approaching zero，and continuing purchases by the European Central Bank will make the high debt-to-GDP ratio sustainable for a few years. At some point，however，interest rates will normalize. Should the Italian government not address Italy’s structural weaknesses，and fail to set in motion a sustainable decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio，then economic problems may end up even bigger in the future.
