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南非:疫情影响下的经济发展态势

文章摘要

南非是非洲新冠肺炎确诊病例最多的国家,截至2020年12月31日共有105.7万多人确诊。疫情及封禁措施给南非经济带来巨大冲击,导致南非宏观经济陷入衰退,产业发展受到制约;政府财政压力骤升,金融出现动荡;国际贸易受阻,外来投资大幅降低,国外游客大幅减少;实现包容性增长面临多重困境。南非政府为稳定和恢复经济先后实施社会救助与经济扶持计划、经济重建与复苏计划,为南非经济在第三季度和第四季度逆势反弹做出了贡献。展望2021年,南非疫情发展和经济发展均具有较大的不确定性。从中长期来看,尽管疫情给南非经济带来重大冲击,但也为南非经济改革提供了难得的契机。

Abstract

South Africa is the country with the largest number of COVID-19 cases in Africa. By December 31,2020,the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases for South Africa is 1057161. COVID-19 and the lockdown measures to fight it have a great negative impact on South Africa’s economy,which includes the following aspects:the macro economy is in recession and the industry development is being restricted;the government’s fiscal pressure is rising sharply and the financial stability is being shaken;the international trade is being blocked,the FDI is reduced greatly and the international tourists are decreasing dramatically;and inclusive development is facing multiple challenges. In order to stablize and recover its economy,the government of South Africa implemented Social Relief and Economic Support Package and Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan respectively,which has contributed to the rebound of the economy in the third and fourth quarters. As for 2021,both the development of COVID-19 and the development of economy in South Africa are quite uncertain. In the medium to long term,although COVID-19 has brought a major impact on South Africa’s economy,it also provides a good opportunity for South Africa to carry out economic reforms.

作者简介
沈晓雷:沈晓雷,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所、中国非洲研究院副研究员,研究方向为非洲政治、民族以及南非和津巴布韦国别研究。