在2019年大选前的这一年里,对于现任小特鲁多领导的自由党政府来说,可谓多事之秋。从大选局势来看,一方面,小特鲁多的内政外交都遭遇了一浪高过一浪的冲击,尤其是孟晚舟事件和SNC丑闻的出现和发酵,再加上反对党的大力抨击,都使得民众更加质疑自由党政府的能力和诚信。另一方面,自由党政府积极调整财政预算和政策,关注选民重视的议题,并且在钢铝关税问题上与美国达成和解,有望推动USMCA的批准,也让自由党保持了一定的优势。因此,10月的联邦大选竞争将会十分胶着,自由党和小特鲁多连任的把握依然存在,但优势已经逐渐减小。而且少数党政府逐渐在各个省赢得执政机会,这对于联邦大选来说也是一股日渐强大的力量。对于小特鲁多来说,几个重要大省的话语权都被其他政党把持,这意味着即使胜选,联邦政府未来也会面临更多掣肘。
It is a troublesome year for Trudeau’s administration before the 2019 federal election. On the one hand,both the domestic politics and foreign relations have been greatly impacted by all kinds of crisis. In addition,the vigorous criticism from the opposition party has also made the voters have more question about the ability and credibility of the Liberal government. On the other hand,the Liberal government actively adjusts its budget and policies,paying more attention to issues that voters value,and settles with the United States on the steel-aluminum tariff issue which is expected to promote the approval of the USMCA and also allow the Liberal Party to maintain certain advantages in election. Therefore,the competition for the federal election in October will be very tight. Trudeau still has a chance to win,but his advantages have gradually narrowed. Moreover,the minority governments have gradually gained ruling opportunities in several provinces,which means minority’s party will be another growing force in federal election. Therefor,even if Trudeau wins the election,the federal government will still face more constraints in the future.
| Keywords: | Federal ElectionTrudeauMeng WanzhouSNC |