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2014~2015:加拿大发展形势回顾与展望

文章摘要

2014年以来,加拿大宏观经济增速平稳,中长期增长前景较为乐观。通胀水平总体温和,利率持平,汇率走弱。国内就业状况得到显著改善,但是各个省区和产业部门的就业市场存在明显差异。加拿大国内接连发生的恐怖袭击事件震惊世界,考验政府的反恐政策与国内安全治理能力。政府财政赤字没有减轻,反而有所加剧,省区地方政府的财政赤字存在较大差异。加拿大国内多个地区与城市接连发生罢工,工会与政府对立日益凸显,社会组织与政府之间的内耗加剧。公平选举法案出台,地方与联邦选举激烈纷呈,华人参政议政热情高涨,魁北克寻求独立问题得到缓解。2015年联邦大选后,一党独大并执政的可能性降低,组成联合政府执政的概率更高。加拿大政府日益重视经济外交和北极战略,外交政策与手段也日益多元化。中加关系在经贸能源等领域出现良好合作发展势头,在双边安全和外交领域的摩擦需加强沟通与协调,中加关系正在朝着稳定性与战略性的友好合作关系方向迈进。

Abstract

Since 2014,the Canadian macroeconomic growth is steady,long-term growth prospects are more optimistic. The overall inflation is moderate,interest rates is unchanged,and there is a weaker exchange rate. Domestic employment situation has been significantly improved,but the job market of each province and the industrial sector are obviously different. Canadian domestic terrorist attacks shocked the world spate,which test of the government’s anti-terrorism and domestic security governance standpoint. Government budget deficit is not reduced,but has intensified,there is a big difference in the local provincial government’s budget deficit. Domestic multiple regions and cities spate of strikes,unions and government opposition has become increasingly prominent,friction between the social organizations and the government are intensified. Fair Elections Act is introduced,local and federal elections are intense,while Chinese enthusiasm in political participation is high,Quebec seek independence which is failed and nearly alleviated the problem. After the 2015 federal election,the possibility of one-party dominance is lower,the higher is the probability of the composition of the ruling coalition government. The Government of Canada and the growing importance of the Arctic strategy for economic diplomacy,foreign policy and the means is increasingly diversified,a joint initiative founded PMP Group. Sino-Canadian relations have good momentum cooperation in the trade and the field of energy,etc.,and the friction in bilateral security and diplomatic fields need to strengthen communication and coordination,Sino-Canadian relations are moving toward stability and strategic direction of the friendly and cooperative relations.

作者简介
程永林:程永林,博士,副教授,广东外语外贸大学加拿大研究中心专职研究人员,复旦大学应用经济学博士后,加拿大温莎大学商学院访问学者,研究方向为加拿大社会与经济。