2019年4月，执政近30年的巴希尔政权在苏丹民众的示威声中轰然倒台。作为阿拉伯世界首个由政治伊斯兰势力控制并相对长期执政的政权，巴希尔政权倒台的原因复杂，并将深刻影响地区局势，值得关注和研究。本文借鉴政治合法性的相关理论，认为对苏丹巴希尔政权而言，意识形态、执政能力和施政绩效是三个由里及外、相互联系的重要合法性资源。巴希尔政权倒台的根源，在于这三大合法性资源的流失与枯竭。本文据此分析巴希尔政权倒台的深层次原因，并对苏丹局势未来走向做出一个初步的预判。
In April of 2019，the Bashir regime，which had been in power for nearly 30 years，fell amid demonstrations by the people of Sudan. As the first regime in the Arab world controlled by Islamic political forces that stayed in power for a relatively long time，the Bashir regime fell for a complexity of reasons，which will have a profound impact on the regional situation. Based on the relevant theories of political legitimacy，this paper holds that ideology，governing capacity and governance performance are the three important interrelated legitimacy resources. The root cause of the fall of the Bashir’s regime lies in the loss and depletion of these three resources. Such an analysis can also facilitate a preliminary prediction of the future trend of the situation in Sudan.
