俄罗斯经济2020年一开始延续了2019年底经济企稳上升的势头,一季度实现了1.6%的增长。但3月的油价暴跌和随之而来的新冠肺炎疫情打乱了俄罗斯经济运行及经济政策的节奏,使俄经济陷入危机之中。受疫情冲击,2020年俄罗斯全年GDP增长-3.1%,就业率下降,居民实际可支配收入下降,投资负增长,对外贸易大幅萎缩,财政赤字上升,公共债务占GDP的比重上升。从部门看,受疫情冲击影响最严重的领域是第三产业,加工业相对平稳,采矿业受外部行情影响陷入负增长,但农业领域实现了增长。总体上,处于衰退中的俄罗斯经济不存在系统性的金融债务危机,但恢复增长的动力缺乏。在抗疫反危机背景下,俄罗斯政府第一次全面实施了宽松的财政货币政策,为抵御疫情冲击、制止经济下滑提供了比较有效的支持。同时,俄罗斯通过预算执行机制改革和机构调整确立以国家项目为中心的经济增长战略,这是国家经济体制方面的重大改革,值得关注。
At the beginning of 2020,the Russian economy showed a steady and upward momentum,and achieved 1.6% growth in the first quarter. However,the oil price plunge in March and the subsequent epidemic disrupted the positive developing pace,and the economy fell into crisis. The GDP growth for 2020 is-3.1%. Affected by the epidemic,Russia’s employment rate and disposable income of residents has declined. The investment growth rate is negative,the foreign trade has shrunk sharply,the fiscal deficit has increased,and the proportion of public debt in GDP has risen as well. From the perspective of sectors,the tertiary industry has been affected most severely,the processing industry is relatively stable,the mining industry fall into negative growth due to external market conditions,but the agricultural sector has achieved growth. In general,the Russian economy does not exist a systemic financial debt crisis,but there is a lack of motivation to resume growth. In the background of the anti-epidemic and anti-crisis,the Russian government has implemented a loose fiscal and monetary policy for the first time,which provides effective support. At the same time,Russia has established an economic growth strategy centered on national projects through the reform of the budget implementation mechanism and institutional adjustments,which is worthy of attention.