2017年1月8日,伊朗前总统、确定国家利益委员会主席拉夫桑贾尼逝世。作为伊朗改革的开启者,拉夫桑贾尼在后霍梅尼时代伊朗的发展中留下了深刻的烙印,他所开启的改革进程对于伊朗摆脱内政外交困境产生了深远的影响。从拉夫桑贾尼改革的总体特征来看,拉夫桑贾尼改革的主要特点是在不触及伊斯兰体制的框架下,通过政治、经济、外交领域的局部调整实现伊朗的国家利益尤其是经济发展。尽管拉夫桑贾尼的改革并没有动摇伊朗伊斯兰体制的框架,但依然引起了传统保守派势力的强烈反对,并在某种程度上引发伊朗改革派与保守派的政治分化。这种分化及其导致的改革与保守力量的政治轮替一直贯穿于后霍梅尼时代的伊朗历史之中。2013年以来,温和保守派鲁哈尼再次开启改革,但伊朗能否走出改革与保守势力轮回的历史怪圈尚需拭目以待。
Iran’s former President,Chairman of Iranian Expediency Discernment Council Rafsanjani died on January 8,2017. As the pioneer of Iran’s reform,Rafsanjani left a deep imprint in the historical development of post-Khomeini Iran. The reform process he launched has exerted far-reaching influence for Iran to get rid of plights of its internal and external affairs. Viewing from the overall characteristics of Rafsanjani’s reform,without changing the Islamic framework,it makes Iran’s national interest,especially the economic development,possible through partly adjustments in political,economic and diplomatic areas,which is the main feature of Rafsanjani’s reform. Although Rafsanjani’s reform has not shaken the fundamental framework of Iran’s Islamic system,it aroused strong opposition from domestic conservative forces,and produced political differentiation between reformers and conservatives in Iran’s political forces to some extent. Such differentiation,as well as the political rotation the differentiation has led to,has been existed throughout post-Khomeini Iranian history. Since 2013,Rohani from moderately conservative once again launched reform. However,whether Iran could get out of the rotation between reformers and conservatives is uncertain.