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2009~2010年拉丁美洲和加勒比政治形势

文章摘要

洪都拉斯“6·28政变”的消极影响并未改变拉美政治发展进程平稳运转的主流趋势;10多个拉美国家举行的各类选举进展顺利,政党轮替和权力交接基本有序;在一些左翼政府的执政地位得到进一步稳固的同时,右翼力量的影响在一些国家有所抬头和增长,“左”“右”交替和政策多变的风险依然存在;拉美国家民主政治体制及维护民主体制的集体机制的脆弱性依然明显;金融危机加大了拉美各国政府的执政难度。巴西、哥伦比亚、委内瑞拉等国即将举行的各类选举不仅会决定这些国家的政治走向,也会对拉美地区的政治走势产生重大影响。洪都拉斯危机的影响、金融危机的政治效应,以及拉美国家在发展道路、政策取向、地区一体化、美拉关系问题上的矛盾、分歧和摩擦等问题值得关注。

Abstract

The negative impact of Honduras Coup on June 28th 2009 has not changed LAC’s main political trend featured by stable progress as various elections were smoothly carried out in more than ten countries and power was transferred basically orderly among different parties. In some countries,leftist governments got reinforced while right political forces were emerging and taking ground in others. Therefore,LAC countries may have to face the risk of an ever swinging political pendulum between the left and the right and the consequent policy discontinuity. Besides,democratic institutions and collective mechanisms to safeguard democratic institutions remain obviously weak and governability is conditioned by the financial crisis. Elections of various types in Brazil,Colombia,Venezuela and other countries in 2010 will not only determine the political trends in these countries but also impact the political tendency of the whole region. Impacts of Honduras Crisis,political effects of the financial crisis,contradictions,discrepancies and frictions among LAC countries with regard to development road,policy orientation,regional integration and relationship with the US deserve further observation.

作者简介
袁东振:袁东振,2002年毕业于中国社会科学院研究生院,获法学博士学位。现为中国社会科学院拉美所研究员,政治室主任,博士生导师。主要研究方向为拉美政治。