2011年美国经济增长出现了明显放缓的趋势，经济增长的内生性也急剧下降。尽管当前美国公司部门的盈利状况得到了完全改善，但美国主权债务问题日益显性化，进一步压缩了美国的政策空间，迫使奥巴马政府在努力压缩财政支出的同时启动增税计划，也使美国货币政策的走势变得更加扑朔迷离。在未来一年内，面对持续高企的失业率，美联储肯定不会轻言退出宽松货币政策，然而当前的通货膨胀局面使滞涨出现的可能性日益加大。由于受到欧洲主权债务危机的影响，美元资产的安全岛效应还比较明显，因此美国国债市场也可以维持暂时的稳定。但是美国经济在2011年的表现也使我们无法看好2012年的美国经济。
The pace of the expansion of the United States economy has slowed down in the first half of 2011,and the endogeneity of growth dropped dramatically.Even though the income after tax of the corporate sector was greatly improved,the sovereignty debt pressure became tremendous and leaves little room for policy maneuver.The Obama Administration began to implement fiscal consolidation plan by reducing expense and rising tax,and the future monetary policy became more ambiguous.Facing with the record long unemployment,it's not easy for the the Fed to anounce policy exit in the coming year,but the present inflation will increase the possibility of stagflation.The safe heaven effect of the US dollar might persist against the background of European sovereignty debt crisis.As a result,the value of US dollar may not depreciate sharply and the debt market of the United States can be stable.However,the performance of the US economy in 2011 makes us hard to be optimistic to its future in 2012.
