历史考察和计量分析显示流动性对股票市场有着重要影响。充裕的流动性会通过各种机制传递到股票市场中,造成股票价格的上涨。2001年之后,全球流动性过剩造成了全球股市的新一轮上涨,本轮全球股市上涨过程中,由于流动性的分布不同,不同地区股市表现也存在着一定的差异,其中新兴市场国家的股市发展更为迅猛。由于上市公司业绩的提升,股票价格的上涨并没有造成全球股市的高估值。但股票市场估值不高并不意味着风险的消除,一旦流动性发生逆转,股市将会受到巨大冲击。
Through history observation and econometric analysis,we find global liquidity has important influence on stock markets. Abundant liquidity can be transferred to stock markets through many kinds of channels and cause the rise of stock price.After 2001,global liquidity excess has drived a new round of increase in stock markets.However,due to distribution difference of liquidity,there exists big gap in different markets.Stock markets in new market-oriented countries developed very fast.Meanwhile owing to rapid growth of profits in listed companies,high evaluation did not occur in global stock markets.But it does not mean risks have been eliminated,and once liquidity reverses,stock market will fall under vast impact.
Keywords: | RisksGlobal LiquidityStock Markets |