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中澳关系:特朗普时代的机遇与风险

文章摘要

2017年1月特朗普上任之后,试图重新调整美国的对外政策,与传统盟友澳大利亚之间的关系一度出现紧张。这推动了澳大利亚政府重新考虑调整其对外政策。这为一直以来稳定发展的中澳关系提供了一定的契机,中澳之间的双边外交机制也取得了一些重要的进展。不过,在美澳两国的建制派和军方保守势力的影响下,特恩布尔政府积极寻求美国在亚太地区的安全保证,热衷于促进美国在该地区发挥作用以遏制中国的影响力。在澳大利亚国内,政治趋向保守,特别是在民粹主义和排外情绪不断发酵的社会背景下,澳大利亚政客和媒体不断发出反华声音,对中澳关系造成了严重伤害。预计未来随着美澳关系转暖,这些因素可能仍会对中澳关系的进一步发展构成挑战,考验两国的智慧和耐心。

Abstract

After Donald Trump took the position of President of the United States in January 2017,he tried to readjust the US foreign policy,including the relationship with traditional allies. As a result,the US-Australia relationship was once tense,and the Australian government reconsidered adjusting its foreign policy to adapt to this new situation. This provides certain opportunities for the stable development of China-Australia relations. Some important progress has also been made in the institutionalized diplomatic channel between China and Australia. However,under the influence of the establishment and military conservative forces of the United States and Australia,the Turnbull government actively sought security assurances from the United States and was keen to promote the U.S. role in the Asia-Pacific region to balance China's rising influence. In Australia,as domestic politics tend to be conservative,especially in the context of rising populism and xenophobia,the Australian politicians and the media have continuously voiced against Chinese influence,which has brought serious damage to the Sino-Australian relationship. It can be predicted that with the warming of US-Australia relations,these factors may still pose challenges to the further development of China-Australia relations and test the wisdom and patience of the two countries.

作者简介
谢来辉:谢来辉,经济学博士,中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院助理研究员。