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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

周边大国博弈背景下的巴阿局势

文章摘要

巴基斯坦和阿富汗的关系向来不稳定,目前巴阿边境问题、巴基斯坦“支恐”问题、阿富汗难民问题以及巴基斯坦对阿富汗的贸易限制问题等是巴阿关系中的主要矛盾。同时,巴阿局势动荡的背后有美国、俄罗斯、印度、伊朗和中国等周边大国的竞争与博弈。大国在巴阿问题上的博弈既有互相冲突之处,也有共同利益可寻,这为巴阿局势带来更多变数。巴阿在多项议题上的特点是互不信任,第三方是巴阿关系发展中的关键因素,巴阿局势的缓和需要两国努力取得更多的互信,更需要在地区博弈者之间建立更广泛的对话机制与信任。

Abstract

The relation between Afghanistan and Pakistan are often unstable. The issues now,such as the continuing instability along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border,the claim of Pakistani support for terrorism,the worsening situation of Afghan refugees in Pakistan,the restrictions placed by Pakistan on trade from Afghanistan,as well as other issues are the root of problems faced by Afghanistan and Pakistan in development of their relations. At the same time,behind the worsening relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan,we can see the influence exerted by the competition and power games between the neighboring countries including the U.S.,Russia,India,Iran,China and other countries. Apart from the conflicts ensuing from the power games played by the neighboring countries over the Afghanistan-Pakistan issues,there are common interests between these countries too,which brings more unpredictability to the development of Afghanistan-Pakistan relations. Afghanistan-Pakistan relations are characterized by lack of mutual trust on many issues. Third parties are the key factor for development of Afghanistan-Pakistan relations. Easing of the tense relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan depends on more mutual trust between the two countries,and more importantly,we need a more extensive dialogue mechanism as well as more trust between the game players in the region.

作者简介
朱永彪:朱永彪,副教授,兰州大学阿富汗研究中心主任
魏丽珺:魏丽珺,兰州大学中亚研究所硕士研究生。