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分裂与共识:2019年的美国内政外交与2020年美国大选展望

文章摘要

2019年的美国在政治、经济、社会等多个层面的分裂趋势都在不同程度地加剧。两党党争激化到接近引发宪政危机,部分蓝州和特朗普政府之间诉讼不断,甚至将司法系统裹挟到政治斗争之中。经济增长、美股“牛市”和就业市场表现良好等未能缓解财政和贸易的“双赤字”问题,特朗普减税政策和美联储降息的“双降”刺激效应在减弱。受益或受损于经济全球化的不同人群和不同地区之间的矛盾并未缓和。“市场提供福利”的思路仍在加剧收入差距和劳资收益失衡。更加严厉的移民政策日益成为“撕裂”美国政治的导火索,美国社会分裂的维度在日趋多元化。在分裂的背后,“保持美国霸主地位”的共识仍是美国在面临重大调整和变化的进程中保持稳定的基石所在。美国在进行整体战略收缩的同时重点关注大国竞争,特别是遏制中国成为美国的战略共识,试图重构有利于美国自身利益的全球秩序。因此,2020年美国大选相当程度上是美国自身“孤立主义-全球主义”两种路线之争的集中表现,将深刻影响未来美国的走势。

Abstract

The US political,economic,social divisions are worsening in 2019. Relations between the two parties,with lawsuits raging between some blue states and the Trump administration,are on the verge of triggering a constitutional crisis,which even bring the judicial system into a series of political disputes. Economic growth,the “bull market” of US stocks and the good performance of the job market have failed to alleviate the “double deficit”(financial deficit and trade deficit)problem. Meanwhile,stimulus effect of trump’s tax cuts and the federal reserve’s interest rate cuts is waning. Tensions between different groups and regions that have benefited or suffered from economic globalization have not been eased. The idea of “the market providing benefits” continues to exacerbate income disparities and inequality between labor and capital. Tougher immigration policies are increasingly used as a flash point to tear US politics apart,as the dimensions of social division become increasingly diverse. Behind the split,the consensus to “maintain American hegemony” remains the bedrock of stability in the face of various adjustments and changes. While carrying out the overall strategic contraction,the United States focuses on the great power competition,regarding the containment of China as the strategic consensus. By doing so,it tries to reconstruct a global order that serves its own interests. Therefore,the US election in 2020 is,to a large extent,a concentrated performance of the two lines of “isolationism and globalism”,which will profoundly affect its future.

作者简介
魏南枝:魏南枝,中国社会科学院美国研究所副研究员,社会文化研究室副主任,主要研究领域为美国社会和比较政治社会学。
王聪悦:王聪悦,中国社会科学院美国研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为美国社会思潮和社会运动。