回顾2011年的债券市场可谓跌宕起伏，峰回路转，全年走势先抑后扬。前三季度经济增速放缓与通胀高企并存，宏观调控政策措施严厉，债券市场资金面紧绷，信用风险凸显，债市振荡下跌。四季度，经济增速和通胀双回落趋势确立，政策预调微调，资金面回暖，债券市场走出继2005年、2008年以来的第三大牛市。展望2012年，整体经济将处于缓慢回升调整阶段，结合对宏观基本面和政策面的考量，我们认为明年债市收益率将是“V”形走势，相应的，债市行情将是先扬后抑的“倒V形”走势。
There were tremendous ups and downs in the bond market in 2011. The first three quarters have seen economic growth slowing down and inflation picking up due to the restrictive monetary policies, which resulted in limited liquidity and higher credit risks. In the fourth quarter, the economy growth and inflation were both contained, and the expectation of policy change led to positive credit supplies. Accordingly, the bond market rebounded and ended as the third bull year after 2005 and 2008. Looking ahead into 2012, the overall economy is in the phase of slow recovery. Taking into consideration of macro-economy and monetary policies, we believe that the bond yield will be trending in "V" shape, and accordingly, the bond market will be trending in the reverse "V" shape.
