次贷危机爆发至今，美国私人部门已基本完成了去杠杆，政府部门将进入去杠杆周期。2012年美国房地产市场回暖，消费温和回升且主要集中于耐用品消费当中，居民收入和失业率略有改善。预计2013年美国仍将延续弱复苏态势，但难有超预期表现，主要风险在于财政紧缩政策和货币宽松的退出预期对于经济的拖累。奥巴马政府推行的“再工业化”以及出口倍增计划将影响中长期美国经济复苏增长的路径和速度。能源革命带来的正向供给冲击将对美国乃至全球的能源和贸易格局产生深远的影响，需要持续关注。
The deleveraging cycle has come to an end for the private sector, but it is just a start for the public sector since the 2008 financial crisis. We saw a rebound of US real estate market in 2012. Total consumption is also recovered slowly, mainly on the durable goods. There is marginal improvement in household income and unemployment. We expect a weak recovery of US economy in 2013. A tough austerity and the retreat of monetary policy will be the most important threat to the economy. Reindustrialization of America and export enhancement strategy, proposed by the Obama administration, will reshape the US economy in the long term. Also the energy revolution will provide a positive push on the supply side, which will significantly affect the world energy price as well as the trade pattern in the future.
