2012年全球经济处于缓慢复苏的态势。美国为刺激经济强化了货币宽松力度,但在财政风险的拖累下,经济仍无明显起色;欧洲债务问题依然前路漫长,经济已经陷入衰退;日本经济复苏受阻,新兴市场国家复苏缓慢;中国经济经历触底回升,发展方式面临转型。从目前的形势来看,最坏的日子或许已经过去,但是中国经济保持高速增长的基础已经不复存在。展望2013年,美国经济房地产触底,财政悬崖施压,预计增长2%左右;欧债危机继续恶化的概率不大,但经济也不会明显好转;日本经济上升势头减弱,新兴国家会好于上年。中国经济依靠城镇化和投资拉动,预计仍将会有约8%的增长。
The global economy slowed down in 2012. The US implemented QE3 and QE4 to stimulate the economy, but still has no improvement because of the fiscal drag. Troubled by debt problems, Europe has slipped into recession. China's economy bottomed out and began to rise. According to the present situation, the worst days seemed to have passed. In 2013 the US economy is supported by the real estate industry but pressed by the fiscal cliff, and the growth of that is estimated at 2%. While the probability of the European debt crisis deterioration is slim, it is difficult for the economy to pick up substantially. The GDP of China, which is to be driven by urbanization and investment is estimated 8% in 2013.