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2014年中国投资发展回顾及2015年展望

文章摘要

2014年,我国股票市场迎来了久违的大牛市,下半年开始以证券、银行为代表的蓝筹股大幅上涨,但市场分化严重,中小板、创业板涨幅有限;债券市场新发行规模大幅增长,收益上扬;受益于股债双牛,基金指数普遍上涨;商品期货受经济疲弱影响,大部分表现不佳,原油期货出现暴跌;房地产进入调整期,信托规模增速放缓,风险投资与私募股权投资市场有所回暖,银行理财市场规模快速增长。展望2015年,在经济筑底、改革加速、流动性宽松的背景下,预计股票市场将继续上扬,债券市场震荡上升,商品市场弱市震荡;房地产市场继续去库存;银行理财和信托的收益率保持稳定;风险投资与私募股权投资市场维持活跃态势。

Abstract

In 2014,A-Share Market got a bull market,and the blue chip stocks,represented as securities and banks,soared sharply. But on the other hand,the return of small and medium board and venture capital board is limited. The new issuance scale of debt market grew quickly,and the yields rose. And according to the both bull market of stocks and debts,most of the fund indexes rose. By the weak economy influence,the commodity futures performance poorly,and the price of crude oil fell deeply. Real estate entered a period of adjustment,the trust scale slowdown,VC/PE market has warmed up,and the market size of bank financing grew rapidly. Looking forward to 2015,under the background of economy bottoming,reform accelerating and liquidity easing,we expect that the stock market will continue to rise. The debt market will increase volatility. The commodity market will maintain concussion situation. Real estate will continue to destocking. The yield of bank financing and trust will maintain stable. VC/PE market will maintain active posture.

作者简介
张璐璐:张璐璐,博士,中国建投投资研究院研究部主任,主要研究方向为宏观经济、金融投资、先进技术与产业发展。
王申:王申,管理学博士,现就职于建投研究院,主要研究方向为先进制造业。