2020年，疫情之下，中央的宏观政策对于住宅市场未有放松，意味着未来很长时间内，这一领域的调控政策都易紧难松，政策周期论失灵。购房人口峰值已过，商品房成交面积已到历史峰值区间，后续将大概率缓慢下滑。在一些市场热度很高、供应依然不足、居民杠杆率健康的大型城市，2021年的房价上涨动力会较强，即便后续出台调控政策也难改短期趋势。大宗交易市场的整体复苏仍需要时日，投资者会在这一期间更多关注受疫情影响较小的另类资产。
In 2020，China continued to implement its tight property market regulation despite the covid-19 pandemic，which means that for a long time in the future，Beijing is unlikely to loosen its tight grip on housing market and the policy cycle will disappear. Currently，the number of buyers have dropped and the total sales of commodity residential housing has reached peak levels and is likely to fall slowly in the following time. However，in some large cities with the hot real estate market，insufficient supply，and healthy residents’ leverage ratio，housing prices is estimated to rise in 2021 even though the regulatory policies may be introduced to curb the heat. The overall recovery of the block trading market still takes time，and investors will pay more attention to alternative assets that are less affected by the pandemic during this period.
