2020年中国GDP总量首次突破100万亿元，同比增长2。3%，是新冠肺炎疫情冲击下全球唯一实现正增长的主要经济体。但是，目前国内经济恢复基础尚不牢固，特别是供需两端复苏不平衡，居民消费恢复滞后，宏观杠杆率显著抬升。展望2021年，全球经济复苏进程有望加快，国内宏观经济政策将逐步回归常态，对重点消费领域的结构性刺激政策有望对居民消费形成显著提振。如果疫情形势不发生超预期恶化，预计2021年中国实际GDP增速有望达到8%，其中国内消费的贡献占比将在七成以上；随着经济运行回归常态，“稳杠杆”压力将大为缓解，市场利率可能重回上行；预计PPI全年增速将回升至2%以上，CPI全年增速约为1%。
In 2020，China’s total GDP exceeded 100 trillion yuan for the first time，with an increase of 2.3% year-on-year，and it is the only major economy in the world that has achieved positive growth under the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic. However，the foundation for China’s economic recovery is not yet solid，especially the unbalanced recovery of supply and demand，the lagging recovery of household consumption，and the significant increase in macro leverage. Looking forward to 2021，the global economic recovery is expected to accelerate，China’s macroeconomic policies will gradually return to normal，and structural stimulus policies for key consumption areas are expected to significantly boost domestic consumption. With the economy return to normal，the pressure of “stabilizing leverage” will be greatly eased，and market interest rates may return to the upside. It is expected that the annual growth rate of PPI will rebound to more than 2%，and the annual growth rate of CPI will be about 1%.
