2020年新冠肺炎疫情的暴发给南亚地区的经济和政治前景带来了严峻挑战。疫情使南亚上半年的经济几乎陷入停滞。南亚各国政府通过货币宽松、财政刺激和支持性金融政策,积极稳定经济活动。第三季度,南亚经济低迷状况有所改善,但复苏进程依然不稳,且差异化态势明显。疫情也进一步暴露了南亚政治安全形势的脆弱性,加剧了地缘政治竞争和大国竞争。受疫情影响,2020年中国与南亚的贸易额略有下降。2020年印度针对中国的贸易投资保护主义措施越来越多。疫情造成的旅行延误、入境禁令和供应链中断也不可避免地导致中国在南亚的一些重大建设项目的进度放缓,其中许多项目是“一带一路”倡议、中国与南亚贸易便利化计划的重要组成部分。鉴于疫情和国际形势的变化导致南亚国家的经济、政治和外交政策发生了诸多显著变化,中国和南亚区域合作前景将取决于三大因素:疫情的持续时间、中印关系走向以及南亚地缘政治和安全风险。当前中国和南亚国家都处于经济发展转型的关键阶段,需要良好的外部环境支撑。中国应充分利用既有的政治、经济、文化、安全等多双边、区域合作机制,妥善管控分歧、聚焦合作共识,拓展合作空间,深化中国和南亚的经济合作。
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has brought severe challenges to the economic and political prospects of South Asia. The pandemic plunged South Asia’s economy into a state of stagnation in the first half of 2020. South Asian governments actively stabilized economic activities through monetary easing,fiscal stimulus and supportive financial policies. In the third quarter,the economic downturn in South Asia improved,but the recovery was still unstable and varied greatly from country to country. The pandemic further exposed the fragility of the political and security situation in South Asia,and also intensified geopolitical competition and struggle among major powers. In particular,the rise of Indian nationalism brought many challenges to the regional cooperation between China and South Asia. Due to the pandemic,the trade volume between China and South Asia declined slightly in 2020 as a whole. As South Asia’s largest trading partner,India also took more trade and investment protectionism measures against China in 2020. The travel delayed. Entry restriction and supply chain disruption caused by the pandemic also inevitably slowed down some China’s major construction projects in South Asia,many of which constitute an integral part of the Belt and Road Initiative and the China-South Asia trade facilitation plan. Considering that the development of the pandemic and the international situation has brought about many significant changes in the economic,political and foreign policies of South Asian countries,the prospect of the regional cooperation between China and South Asia will depend on three factors:the duration of the pandemic,the trend of China-India relations,and the geography and security situation in South Asia. At present,both China and South Asian countries are at the critical stage of economic development and transformation,which means that both sides need a positive external environment to sustain the development. China should make full use of the existing multilateral and regional cooperation mechanisms in such areas as politics,economy,culture and security. China should also properly handle differences with those countries,reach a cooperation consensus,expand cooperation possibilities,and deepen the economic cooperation with South Asia.
Keywords: | Regional CooperationBusiness EnvironmentChina-India RelationsChinaSouth AsiaGeopoliticsThe COVID-19 Epidemic |