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2020年中东格局的再阵营化趋势

文章摘要

当前中东格局出现再阵营化趋势,形成了美国、以色列、沙特与俄罗斯、伊朗、土耳其两个阵营。再阵营化过程有两个结构上的变化,一是世界大国与地区大国在各自层面展开博弈,构成了阵营对抗的“双层博弈”结构;二是意识形态因素在阵营形成和对抗中的作用减弱,地区国家战术自主性增强。在再阵营化过程中,对抗焦点发生了转移,非国家行为体在阵营对抗中的重要性提升。再阵营化是中东地区力量失序的表现,也是形成新战略格局的重要方式,在形成稳定的权力结构前,再阵营化将是中东格局的常态。

Abstract

The current pattern of the Middle East shows a re-camping trend,one camp represented by the United States,Israel and Saudi Arabia,and the other by Russia,Iran and Turkey. There are two structural changes in the process of re-camping. The first is that the core powers and regional powers play games at their respective levels,which constitutes a “double-layer game” structure of camp confrontation. The second is that the role of ideological factors have been weakened in camp formation and confrontation whereas the tactical autonomy of regional powers are enhanced. In the process of re-camping,the focus of confrontation has shifted,and the importance of non-state actors has increased in camp confrontation. Re-camping is a manifestation of power disorder in the Middle East and an important way to form a new strategic pattern. Before a stable power structure can be formed,re-camping will be the norm of the Middle East pattern.

作者简介
邵玉琢:邵玉琢,博士,北京语言大学国别和区域研究院助理研究员。