基于上海宏观经济历史数据和2020年前三季度数据，对上海经济运行态势进行分析，并结合投入产出模型对不同情景下未来一年上海经济增长趋势进行研判。经测算，在乐观情景下，2021年上半年上海经济将实现反弹，增速超过2019年水平，全年呈现前高后低的增长态势，全年增速有望达到6%；在一般情景下，2021年上海经济增长水平将略高于2020年下半年，全年增速保持在4.5%左右；在悲观情景下，2021年上半年上海经济勉强维持2020年下半年的水平，下半年持续走低，全年增速保持在3%左右。
Based on macroeconomic data of Shanghai in the first three quarters of 2020 and before that，we analyze current and past economic situation of Shanghai，and predict the economic growth of Shanghai in the next year under different scenarios by combining with the input-output model. It is estimated that under the optimistic scenario，there is a rebound in the first half of 2021，with the growth rate exceeding that of 2019. It shows a trend of high growth then low growth，and the annual GDP growth rate is expected to reach 6%. Under normal circumstances，Shanghai’s economy in 2021 will be slightly higher than the growth level in the second half of 2020，and the annual GDP growth rate will remain around 4.5%. Under the pessimistic scenario，it is estimated that the first half of 2021 will barely remain at the level of the second half of 2020，and the second half will continue to decline，with annual GDP growth at around 3%.
