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2019年中美战略竞争视角下的亚太地区趋势

文章摘要

本报告回顾了中美战略竞争关系的形成、发展和趋势,分析了中美战略竞争关系对美国全球战略部署和亚太地区态势的影响,在此基础上就中国如何合理经略与周边、大国的关系提出相应政策建议。基于两国间的结构性矛盾,中美战略竞争关系的负向发展趋势难以回避。中美之间具有战略竞争关系是面临日趋激化的党派斗争的美国各派所达成的为数不多的共识。美国国内对中美战略竞争关系的认知具有一致性和连贯性,难以因大选而出现实质性变化。大国竞争成为美国首要外交挑战,地缘政治经济思维回归,在中美战略竞争定调、持续的背景下,美国维护其全球领导者地位和军事霸主地位的战略目标并未发生实质性变化,但其对地缘战略排序和战略手段进行了调整。亚太地区超过中东和欧亚大陆成为美国的首要战略部署区域。特朗普上台后,美国在该地区的战略重点逐渐从亚太转到印太。有鉴于此,亚太地区将成为中美战略博弈的核心聚焦区域。对中国而言,妥善经略与周边、大国的关系,不仅能增加中国与美国战略博弈的筹码,而且对中国发展和实现民族复兴亦不可或缺。

Abstract

This essay reviews the formation and trends of China-US strategic competition,and analyses the impacts of the China-US strategic competition on the US global strategic deployments and the situation in the Asia-Pacific. On the basis of the foregoing,this essay provides policy advice on properly handling two types of relations-China’s relations with the neighboring countries as well as China’s relations with great powers. As a result of the comparison of relative capabilities,it is difficult to reverse the negative trend in the China-US strategic competition. Regardless of the upcoming presidential election in the United States,the China-US strategic competition,a bipartisan consensus,will be unlikely to change substantially. In the context of the constant China-US strategic competition,with the great powers competition as the priority in the US foreign challenges and a revival of the geopolitical economic thought,while the strategic goal of the US,that is to sustain its global leadership and keep its military hegemony,has not been changed,the geo-strategic sequence and means have been adjusted. As a result,the Asia-Pacific has become the primary geo-strategic region in the US global strategic deployments. Since Trump took the office,the Indo-Pacific has replaced the Asia-Pacific to become the focus of the US. All in all,for China,rightly handling relations with the neighboring countries and great powers,not only does China itself has more bargaining counters in games with the US,but also it is indispensable for China’s rise and its great rejuvenation.

作者简介
高程:高程,博士,中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院研究员,主要研究方向为大国战略、中美关系及国际政治经济学。
王莎莎:王莎莎,中国社会科学院研究生院博士研究生。