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2020年疫情下的失业困局:主要经济体的纾困政策及效果

文章摘要

新冠肺炎疫情对全球就业市场造成了重大冲击,主要经济体均推出了大规模的纾困政策。此次主要经济体纾困政策以财政政策为主,普遍规模大、工具多,但各国因地制宜,政策覆盖面和政策节奏各有差异,且政策侧重国内协调、缺乏国际协调。纾困政策帮助受困企业存续,有助于经济快速重启,但并未有效缓解就业压力,低收入群体长期失业风险上升。此外,纾困政策还导致货币供给大幅上升、政府债务压力上升、财政支出结构加剧失衡、问题企业借机存续、非金融部门债务压力上升等问题,加深了全球经济的结构性问题。

Abstract

As the COVID-19 pandemic has a severe impact on the labor market,major economies have launched large-scale relief plans including package of policy tools since the outbreak of the pandemic. Most of the relief plans mainly depend on fiscal policies. Different countries adjust relief measures to local conditions,with different policy coverage and policy pace,and the measures focus on domestic coordination rather than international coordination. The relief measures help the enterprises survive and help the economy restart quickly,but they do not effectively relieve the employment pressure,and the long-term unemployment risk of the expanding low-income groups. In addition,the relief measures have also led to a sharp rise in the money supply,the rise in government debt burden,the aggravation of imbalance in the structure of fiscal expenditure,the survival of zombie enterprises and the rise of debt burden in the non-financial sector,which have exacerbated the structural problems of the global economy.

作者简介
栾稀:栾稀,经济学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为货币政策。