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非洲国家的债务困境与主权重组减免机制

文章摘要

近年来,非洲国家主权债务风险不断攀升。虽然整体债务负担仍处于历史低位,但部分低收入国家的债务可持续性再度面临严峻挑战。目前,非洲地区的整体债务负担水平仍处于历史低位,但新冠肺炎疫情冲击将导致非洲国家的债务状况进一步恶化。随着“一带一路”建设的推进,中国对非洲贷款显著增加,但大部分面临债务困境的国家对中国的负债比例并不高。为了缓解疫情影响,二十国领导人集团通过《债务偿还暂停倡议》对非洲国家进行了债务延期援助,我国在其中扮演了重要角色。然而,虽然该倡议能够在一定程度上缓解流动性风险,但部分国家可能仍需要主权债务重组和减免援助。历史经验表明,及时恰当的债务重组和减免是帮助重债穷国走出债务困境的重要手段。国际货币基金组织、世界银行和巴黎俱乐部都曾出台适用于非洲国家的债务重组和减免规则。厘清这些规则的优势和劣势对我国构建和完善主权债务重组和减免机制有重要参考价值。后疫情时代,针对非洲国家的债务治理工作有三大重点:一是及时采取危机应对措施,避免债务风险升级;二是从债务国和债权国两方面共同加强对非洲主权债务的管理;三是顺应非洲债权结构的变化,构建更具包容性的国际债务协商机制。

Abstract

African countries have witnessed rapid increase of sovereign debt risk in recent years. Although there is no immediate risk of an overall debt crisis,the debt sustainability of some African countries is under severe threat. The debt condition of African countries is going to further deterioration due to the outburst of COVID-19 pandemic. With the advances of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),Chinese lending to African countries largely expanded. However,for most countries facing high debt risk or debt distress,the ratio of debt to China in total external debt is not high. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic,the G20 has agreed to provide debt standstill support to African countries through the Debt Service Suspension Initiative(DSSI),which China has made great contribution to. The DSSI aims to mitigate the liquidity risk faced by poorest countries,but it cannot resolve insolvency problems. The remedy effect of timely and decisive sovereign debt restructuring and relief measures for heavily indebted countries to get out of debt distress has been well proven by the past experiences of many African countries. Traditional creditors including the IMF,the World Bank and the Paris Club have established comprehensive rules and mechanism of sovereign debt restructuring and relief. The design of these rules could shed important light on the establishment of the debt restructuring and relief institution of China for OBOR countries. In the post pandemic era,there are three key points in the governance of sovereign debt in African countries. The first is to avoid the deterioration of the current debt distress. The second is to enhance the institution of debt management from the perspectives of both creditors and debtors. The last is to establish a more inclusive International debt negotiation mechanism so as to accommodate the changes in the creditor structure of African countries.

作者简介
熊婉婷:熊婉婷,理学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为主权债务、金融监管和系统性风险。
肖立晟:肖立晟,经济学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员,主要研究领域为国际金融与中国宏观经济。