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后疫情时代全球产业链的发展与重构

文章摘要

全球金融危机后,世界经济进入深度调整期。民粹主义、贸易保护主义抬头,逆全球化浪潮来袭,叠加新冠肺炎疫情冲击,既有的全球化格局受到巨大挑战,并面临组织架构、地理格局等方面的重构压力。与此同时,各国要素成本优势的相对变化和新兴技术的发展也推动全球产业链不断调整。后疫情时代的全球化格局将在技术、市场、成本、竞争和政府等多重因素的共同推动下,呈现以下特征:以市场和最终需求导向驱动的区域集聚;以安全导向驱动的供应商多元化和关键产业本地化;以成本和技术导向驱动的产业链梯度转移;以数字技术和人工智能驱动的工业生产方式转变和服务业分工细化。

Abstract

Since the global financial crisis,the world economy has entered into a period of in-depth adjustment. With populism and trade protectionism,anti-globalization and the COVID-19,the existing globalization pattern has been greatly challenged,and faced with the pressure of restructuring the organizational structure and geographical pattern. At the same time,the relative changes in the cost advantages of individual countries and the development of emerging technologies have also promoted the continuous adjustment of the global production chains. Globalization in the post-epidemic era,jointly promoted by multiple factors,including technology,market,cost,competition,and government,will be characterized with four features. First,the regional agglomeration driven by market and final demand;Second,supplier diversification and the localization of key industries driven by security requirements;Third,the industrial gradient transfer of manufacturing industries driven by cost and technology factors;Fourth,the restructuring of industrial production mode and the globalization of service industries driven by digital technology and artificial intelligence.

作者简介
马盈盈:马盈盈,经济学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,研究方向为国际贸易。
崔晓敏:崔晓敏,经济学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,研究方向为国际贸易。