2019~2020年,全球经济呈现负向增长、债务高企、金融脆弱性上升的局面,新冠肺炎疫情的暴发使全球经济和全球治理面临的挑战更加严峻。本报告的智库热点主要选题于中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所全球宏观经济研究室编译的《全球智库半月谈》,选题的时间范围为2019年10月至2020年9月。本报告聚焦于在选题期间被全球智库广泛讨论的三个热点问题。第一,全球债务高企,发达国家政府债务处于第二次世界大战以来的最高水平,新兴市场国家的债务可持续性问题也令人担忧。智库文章分析全球公共债务的形成原因、主要风险点和潜在影响。第二,全球价值链发展动态,包括金融危机后全球价值链变化,以及疫情对全球价值链的影响。第三,疫情的经济影响和各国的政策应对。智库文章估计了疫情对不同主体造成的经济冲击程度,总结了各国政府采取的应对政策并提出相应的政策建议。
From 2019 to 2020,the old challenges of the global economy have not been resolved and the new challenge has been coming. Old issues include slowdown growth,high debt level and rising financial fragility. COVID-19 has brought new challenge on the global economy and governance. This paper summarizes three hot issues discussed by global think tanks from October 2019 to September 2020. The first issue is high levels of public debt. The data on public debt for developed countries rose to highest level recorded since World War II. The latest debt surge in emerging and developing economies has also been striking. Authors from different think tanks analyze the causes,risks and potential impacts of public debt. The second issue is the new development of global value chain which includes the changes of GVC after financial crisis in 2008 and the impacts of COVID-19 on GVC. Third part is about COVID-19. Authors analyze the impact of the epidemic on economy,policy responses adopted by governments and give their corresponding policy suggestions.