2019年7月至2020年8月，全球大宗商品价格先低位盘整，后走出一波“V”形过山车式行情，整体下跌了6.9%。其中，能源价格大幅下跌，金属价格显著上涨，农业原料和食品价格较为稳定。2020年2～4月，新冠肺炎疫情全球蔓延，旅行禁令、居家隔离等防疫措施的实施，加之OPEC+谈判破裂，导致大宗商品尤其原油的需求急剧下跌，商品价格指数下降了30.0%，WTI原油价格一度跌至负值区域。5～8月，在防疫措施放松、需求恢复和供给限制的共同作用下，商品价格指数反弹了30.7%。预期未来疫情难以在短期内得到有效控制，但防疫措施可能不会升级，大宗商品需求将在低位缓升，而供给受前期投资削减的影响会小幅下降，且美元进一步贬值的概率不大，从而大宗商品价格可能在2021年进入恢复和巩固阶段，不过上涨空间较小。受需求恢复、高库存和减产的影响，原油供需失衡状况有所改善，布伦特原油中枢价格在2021年将有望进一步升至50美元/桶。
From July 2019 to August 2020，global commodity prices first consolidated at a low level，and then emerged a V-shaped fluctuation，with an overall decline of 6.9%. Among them，energy prices have fallen sharply，metal prices have risen significantly，and agricultural raw materials and food prices have been relatively stable. From February to April 2020，the commodity price index fell by 30.0%，and the price of WTI crude oil once fell to a negative territory due to the pandemic and resultant prevention measures such as travel bans and home quarantines，and the breakdown of OPEC+ negotiation. From May to August，the commodity price index rebounded by 30.7% under the combined effects of the relaxation of epidemic prevention measures，demand recovery and supply constraints. It is expected that the future epidemic will be difficult to effectively curb in the short term，but the epidemic prevention measures will likely not be upgraded，the demand for commodities will rise slowly at a low level，and the supply will decline slightly due to the impact of previous investment cuts，and the probability of further depreciation of the US dollar is unlikely. Therefore，the commodity prices may enter the recovery and consolidation phase in 2021，but there is little room for upside. Affected by demand recovery，high inventories and production cuts，the imbalance of crude oil supply and demand has improved，and the average price of Brent crude oil will likely rise to $50/barrel in 2021.
