新冠肺炎疫情的暴发和迅速蔓延，叠加国际油价的剧烈波动，使俄罗斯经济雪上加霜。俄罗斯经济增速在经历2020年第一季度的下滑后，在第二季度出现断崖式下跌，同比增长-8.0%。采购经理人指数（PMI）的走势显示，俄罗斯经济在经历急剧萎缩后开始复苏。通货膨胀率总体上稳步上升；生产者价格指数（PPI）呈先抑后扬的走势；失业率持续攀升，经济活动中的就业人口数量也明显下降。新冠肺炎疫情的发展及应对效果、国际油价的走势、大国博弈以及地缘政治风险变化等，都将对俄罗斯经济的复苏进程产生重要影响。展望未来，俄罗斯经济增长前景仍存在较大的不确定性，2020年预计将大幅萎缩，2021年出现反弹的可能性较大。
The outbreak and rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic，combined with drastic fluctuations in international oil prices，has made Russia’s economy worse. After experiencing a decline in the first quarter of 2020，Russia’s economic growth rate fell precipitously in the second quarter，with a year-on-year increase of -8.0%. The trend of the Purchasing Managers’ Index（PMI）shows that the Russian economy has begun to recover after experiencing a sharp contraction. The inflation rate（CPI）has risen steadily on the whole；the Producer Price Index（PPI）has shown a trend of first declining and then rising. The unemployment rate continues to rise，and the number of employed people in economic activities has also declined significantly. The development and response effect of the COVID-19 pandemic，the trend of international oil prices，the intensity of the game among major powers，and changes in geopolitical risks will all have important impacts on the recovery process of the Russian economy. Looking ahead，there are still great uncertainties in Russia’s economic growth prospects. It is expected to shrink sharply in 2020，and it is likely to rebound in 2021.
