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2020~2021年日本经济:重创之下难以迅速反转

文章摘要

2019年日本实际GDP增长0.7%。日本经济在2019年第四季度大幅负增长,消费税率提升是直接诱因,这也预示着如履薄冰的日本经济开始下沉。2020年新冠肺炎疫情在全球蔓延,日本经济受到重创,几乎所有重要经济指标都在2020年上半年出现崩塌式走坏。疫情期间,日本国内的消费需求和投资需求萎缩,外需不振也大幅拖累了日本经济。为应对疫情带来的经济下滑,日本央行在2020年上半年不断宽松金融政策,日本政府试图依靠增发公债渡过经济难关。以新冠肺炎疫情的蔓延态势看,日本经济料已度过最严重加速跌落期,但经济状态若想恢复到疫情暴发之前仍需时日。2020年下半年至2021年日本经济仍将以修复为主。

Abstract

Japan’s real GDP grew by 0.65% in 2019,but the Japanese economy experienced a sharp negative growth in the fourth quarter of 2019. The increase of consumption tax was the direct cause for this negative growth,push the already weak economy into recession. In 2020,the COVID-19 epidemic spread around the world and the Japanese economy was severely hit. Almost all the important economic indicators collapsed in the first half of 2020. Japanese economy was not only affected by domestic consumption and investment demand,but also foreign demand. To cope with the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19,the Bank of Japan kept easing monetary conditions in the first half of 2020 and government tried to ride out the economic difficulties by issuing more public debt. Based on the current situation of the COVID-19,Japan’s economy is expected to have passed the period of accelerating decline,but it will take some time to get back at levels before COVID-19 outbreak. In the second half of 2020 and 2021,the Japanese economy’s main theme will be in repair process.

作者简介
周学智:周学智,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为国际投资。